Here it is, Ronald Reagan's birthday, and the party he restored to greatness is asking itself some serious questions. Perhaps those questions shold have been asked after the Iowa Caucuses last month. In the national political autopsy of Super Tuesday, the Commentocracy typically followed their biases and long held grudges. Instead, they should be considering not the future of their talk radio colleagues, but the future talk radio has made for the GOP.
Liberal pundits and talking heads are gleefully touting the end of talk radio as a dominant center of influence for the conservative movement. Their logic goes something like, “since the GOP is moving away from Mitt Romney, the candidate of choice for talk radio, are Rush and his colleagues fading into irrelevance?”
It is an exercise in wishful thinking of seismic proportions. As Rush has proven over and over, his relevance is not determined by who is in power but by those who must live with the consequences of the decisions those powerbrokers make. Limbaugh and other popular talk radio hosts will thrive no matter who the GOP nominates and no matter who wins the general election in November. Unfortunately, the party of Lincoln has been thrown into an irrecoverable civil war as a result of their unrelenting assault on Mike Huckabee and John McCain.
Reagan’s Revolution
Ronald Reagan’s revolution began many years before 1979. It was a result of a once in a generation mending of fractures in the GOP and the festering dissatisfaction of social conservatives and working class people within the Democratic party. As the 1980 presidential contest neared, Reagan found a way to bring three disparate and often conflicting groups together in what has been likened to a “three-legged stool”. The coalition of the Reagan Revolution was made possible because Reagan supported all three legs of his stool. Neoliberals, the supply-side, free-market economic conservatives and the national defense conservatives were already a large part of the GOP. What Reagan did was everyday man the party of blue blood.
Social conservatives have been thrown a few bones in the form of platform planks addressing their issues, and in exchange, Evangelical leaders invested their reputations in a massive effort to mobilize their flocks to become the most effective political ground force since the early years of the Labor Movement. This leg of the stool included many disaffected working class people in the South and the upper Midwest who felt the Democratic Party had left them. Combined, social conservatives and blue collar workers did not represent enough votes to obtain a governing majority. Nevertheless, if the GOP could not find a way to bring these “values voters” into the fold and keep them there, the coalition would collapse. They earned the name, “SoCons” by being the hands and feet of a party that had become mostly a disembody policy brain.
Merely mouthing pro-family positions and supporting the Second Amendment would not be enough. SoCons were drawn to the Reagan Coalition because Reagan himself convinced him he was one of them. No candidate before or since has been so effective in persuading this block of voters than Reagan. That meant the party stalwarts had to have a hammer to keep SoCons in line. Talk radio and the failed nomination of Justice Robert Bork provided the perfect storm that would codify all of the SoCon agenda into a single, easily defined wedge issue: Judges. Even now, talk radio and the party establishment have worked together to use the hammer of “liberal justices” to hold the values voters in line. Whenever a marginal candidate is offered up, the fear tactic of reminding these voters of what will happen if someone like Hillary Clinton is allowed to appoint the next three justices to the Supreme Court is trotted out as a reliable weapon against independent thought.
Here Come Da Judges
Linking a strict constructionist judicial philosophy with social issues is a natural mix, since much of the judicial activism over the past 50 years has occurred in cases such as the infamous Roe v. Wade decision making abortion a right protected under the 14th amendment. Ironically, Roe v. Wade is often likened to our generation’s edition of Dred Scott. It is an easy quick reference reminder to SoCons that if they do not toe the party line, someone Ruth Bader Ginsburg could be the next Supreme Court Justice. Justice Thomas was treated brutally by Democrats in his confirmation hearings and the nominations for Justices Roberts and Alito proved just as vicious. Judicial appointments have become an emotional involvement strategy for the GOP to keep the SoCons engaged.
Unfortunately, during the time when tough confirmation processes for Alito and Roberts was getting SoCons engaged, they were also becoming more engaged in learning independently about the process itself, and the players involved. As George W. Bush’s presidency began to draw t a close, SoCons began severing their core values from the bundle called “Judicial Activism” and viewing them as ways of examining the core values of candidates. A candidate such as McCain who claims to be in favor of strict constructionist judges has the added burden of demonstrating that in his voting record and in the core values he has espoused over time. The same is true for Romney.
The Appeal to Authenticity
Without the fear of judicial appointments as an easy, consolidated wedge issue, the GOP now has to present a convincing argument, issue-by-issue, to values voters. This weakness began to show fine-line fractures within the GOP coalition when former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee came in second place in the Ames, Iowa straw poll. The dynamic of money versus values came to the forefront as Romney invested millions in his effort to show up a not so strong first over the lesser known Huckabee who only had his core values and a small army of enthusiastic supporters to carry him to a strong second place finish.
Romney poured even more money into his effort to defeat Huckabee. After outspending Huckabee 20 to 1, Romney’s loss should have gained the attention of the establishment and talk radio, seeking to unpack what was behind Huckabee’s win. Instead, they coalesced around Romney instinctively without giving a second thought to the implications of his Iowa loss. Those in the Commentocracy who did consider Romney’s liabilities recognized something Huckabee had that Romney lacked: Authenticity. More importantly, Romney had no credible connection to values voters concerns about abortion, gay rights, gun control and concerns of the middle class.
This huge disconnect between the establishment candidate and the most critical component of the Reagan Coalition was only amplified as an injured Romney campaign limped into New Hampshire where McCain lay in wait. By now, talk radio talents, led by Rush Limbaugh had already launched their effort in support of Romney, the unintended consequences of which we are only now beginning to assess. They are money smart in everything but politics: Romney has invested more than $40 million in a failed effort to convince values voters he can be trusted. Imagine what that amount of money could have done for a candidate with a credible connection to the party base – it should have been obvious to the Commentocracy, but it was not.
He Called Me a Name
Just before the holiday break, a story was planted in Mark Ambinder’s blog claiming that a “prominent DC-based Huckabee ally” claimed Rush Limbaugh did not think for himself. Limbaugh feigned shock and said he thought it was probably the McCain campaign that planted the quote. Within a day, Limbaugh became “convinced” that the quote was real and that an actual staffer on the Huckabee campaign was the source of the quote. Huckabee maintained his campaign did not have a staff in DC, but Limbaugh now had his justification to begin the month long assault on Huckabee: “He called me a name!” Granted, the name was innocuous – entertainer – but to someone of Rush’s degree of self-importance, anything less than acknowledging his longstanding role as a legitimate political commentator and opinion shaper is unacceptable.
Rush’s tirade against Huckabee did not take into account the suspicious nature of the original Ambinder post. His history of commenting on such issues has always been one of skepticism when “undisclosed sources” are cited. Any objective observer now can see it was a carefully choreographed scenario designed to give Rush a reason to launch the talk radio barrage against their candidate’s opponent.
Limbaugh’s talk radio colleagues kept the story line alive through the holidays and into the Iowa Caucuses.
The Unthinkable: A Conservative Wins
When Iowans balked at the comparative ads offered up non-stop by Romney and the supporting cast of Romney mouthpieces on the radio attacking Huckabee, the former Governor pulled the one negative ad at the 11th hour. Much to the chagrin of media, liberal and conservative alike, Huckabee’s pulling the attack ad was viewed with cynicism and disdain. It only served to amplify the radio assault on Huckabee – which only solidified the support of his followers. He beat the more moderate Romney by 8%.
Talk radio became apoplectic. How could this happen? Even a bunch of hayseed hick Evangelicals could see Huckabee was nothing more than a populist preacher with no experience. Why didn’t SoCons hear their message – what about the judges? Isn’t populism like John Edwards? Do they want McCain to win? On and on it went, driving SoCons further from the Romney candidacy.
The Intolerable: McCain’s Momentum
The Commentocracy made some foolish assumptions in their analysis of the Iowa outcome. Not the least of which was that if they could take out Huckabee, values voters would automatically gravitate to Romney on talk radio’s say-so. It didn’t happen. McCain won New Hampshire because the energy was invested in stopping Huckabee. They furthered this blunder by posing Thompson as a contender to draw votes away from Huckabee. Instead, the votes taken away from Huckabee were more than the margin he would have taken South Carolina and the Straight Talk Express gathered steam going into Florida, a state favorable to liberals and moderates in the GOP. The perfect state for someone like Romney delivered for McCain even though the liberal vote was split between himself and Giuliani.
Having sent Huckabee into the margins by declaring it a two-man race, talk radio now focused their efforts on destroying McCain. In addition to the Romney attack machine’s robocalls and negative ads, Talk radio began a combined 336 hour screed against McCain, demonizing him as being so bad that they would support Hillary Clinton if he won the nomination. Their invective became more shrill and when Huckabee didn’t play ball as the non-factor he was declared to be, they turned their guns on him yet again.
And that was the final salvo in their deconstructing of the Reagan Coalition.
What Values Voters Value
The factor the establishment and the formerly conservative Commentocracy failed to consider is that the appeal of Huckabee was not his background as a Baptist pastor. Mitt Romney is a former Bishop in his church, and that was not a factor either. What they missed, and what values voters have been saying since their convention where Huckabee also scored second in a straw poll is that they want leadership that not only appeals to their values, but that genuinely shares them. Romney’s repackaging did not buy him credibility among these voters.
It’s no longer enough to simply hang up a campaign headquarters sign and declare yourself a social conservative. With the social issues no longer bundled into the judicial activism bromide, GOP leaders now have to prove in some measurable way that they are part of the values voters and that SoCons are not merely the faction we need to pat on the head for our GOTV efforts. Huckabee connected with these people on a level of authenticity that Romney is incapable of because until he declared his candidacy, he had an extensive record of being on the other side.
The more hysterical and shrill talk radio’s assault against McCain and Huckabee became the more values voters realized they themselves were under attack. Resented for not toeing the party line, their candidate was vilified as being in some secret black helicopter conspiracy with McCain. The fact is that Huckabee never exchanged salvos with McCain because the Senator never attacked Huckabee – following a strategy that all but ignored the Governor’s presence in the race.
In the end, SoCons were not supporting McCain, they were opposing Romney. A candidate with no core convictions and who is so malleable on core issues cannot expect their support. Rather than trusting talk radio and the GOP establishment, SoCons, values voters at heart recognized what the Commentocracy and their handlers at the RNC still refuse to admit: The values coalition – much of the SoCon base – is not leaving the GOP; the GOP has left them. Had Huckabee not been destroyed after Iowa, these voters would have had a better alternative to Mitt Romney than McCain.
What It Means
In their fear of a positive populism and core values offered by Huckabee, the Commentocracy joined forces to engage the only candidate capable of holding the Reagan Coalition together and making it stronger. In their embrace of an inauthentic candidate who was essentially only right on the NeoLib issues, they chose the wrong horse. They can only hope that this is not the first of many races where their best horses will fail to come in under the wire.
Liberals will celebrate the supposed GOP Crackup and the demise of talk radio. They’re only half right. Talk radio will long survive the damage they did to their own party. They may have killed the Reagan Coalition, but they’ll have plenty to talk about over the next four years. Listeners will still tune in, but only in the same way they tune in to the all-disco station when they’re overcome with boredom.
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