Tony Silva
Prior to Herman Cain's meteoric rise in national polls, overtaking "front runners" Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, polling seemed to come out almost daily reinforcing the media narrative that it was a two man race. Slowly, with each debate and straw poll putting wind at his back, Mr. Cain rose from the asterisk to the front of the pack. Media continued to trumpet the line that Romney was the front runner with Perry his closest opponent; the Cain rise was just a fluke -- he remained the latest flavor of the month.
The media allowed one or two polls showing him as front runner, seemingly in hopes that he would be a significant target in the CNN slugfest where Perry and Romney succeeded in demonstrating what playground bullies look like when they face each other instead of pounding the wimpy kid. In that debate, Newt Gingrich was the clear winner. Michele Bachmann shed much of her attack dog style from previous debates, returning to the articulate and controlled style that got her to the top in the Iowa Straw Poll. Cain withstood withering attacks on his 9-9-9 plan during the first 15 minutes of the debate and apparently suffered little loss -- certainly less loss that the anointed ones inflicted on one another.
In the week that followed, every possible misstatement Mr. Cain uttered was twisted beyond recognition and repeated by critics on both the left and the right with dire predictions that the charismatic pizza baron had peaked and was now on his way to being the latest flavor to leave a bad taste in the mouth of a GOP base hungry for anything but Romney. Media narratives are often buttressed by their own spin on the polls they field or commission. Usually within days, if not hours, their analytical conclusions are reinforced. As soon as a poll comes out that advances their narrative, it's pounced upon and analyzed to death. The only polling data was the instantt focus group data Frank Luntz presented on FoxNews showing Gingrich had gained tremendous support as a result of the debate while Cain remained strong.
In the days that followed two of the most serious gaffes from Mr. Cain, there were no polls. Cain deftly explained his awful sense of humor as the culprit in one case and pointed out that the current law of the land makes abortion a choice -- regardless of what he may think -- and that the law will change under a Cain presidency. Notwithstanding that a president can do nothing to change the legal status of abortion, it is a hot button issue in Iowa where the stakes for a conservative candidate are very high on social issues. Simply put, the rousing reception he received in the Iowa Faith and Family Voters event last week seemed to indicate he did far less damage to himself that the media and GOP Establishment had hoped. If he had, and polling showed it there would have been an almost immediate flood of lying figures to support their narrative. All remains quiet on the polling front as of this post.
The ubiquitous polling will return to the airwaves and papers of America. But not before they clearly demonstrate that Herman Cain is no longer enjoying broad support among conservatives in his party. Unless, that is, the media becomes convinced that the Cain Train has continued to build steam. Then the narrative becomes one of a candidate, thoroughly unqualified for the task gaining support of a party so desperate to be rid of Obama and his ideological look-alikes at the "front" of the pack, they'd put the nation at risk.
Think back to the end of the 1994 election when the Republicans, led by Newt Gingrich regained control of congress after a 40 year drought. The electorate was accused of throwing a collective toddler tantrum. Will the GOP base rise up against the party establishment and shake their rattles in another collective tantrum? Herman Cain can only hope so.
0 comments:
Post a Comment