Re-Thinking the $20M Assault on Herman Cain

As "front runners" Rick Perry and Mitt Romney unload on each other in an effort to consolidate the moderate vote, one thing can be seen clearly through the lingering smoke: Herman Cain is next.  It is likely that Perry's pettiness will be his downfall as Romney has gained virtually all of the establishment commentariat and the moneyed donors of the Rockefeller wing of the GOP. 

Conservatives will be treated to a $20 million barrage of the slimiest negative --

and often untruthful -- attacks as Romney resurrects the scorched Earth tactics that lost him the nomination in 2008. Then, many establishment moderates and liberals were put off by the candidate who was hell-bent on destroying his opponents at the expense of the election. This cycle, the atmosphere between the two men anointed by the media and the establishment as "front runners" is so poisoned that both Perry and Romney are now dedicated to political destruction of one another; neither seems to have any interest in preserving an electable candidate to face Obama.

Why it won't work this time

Perry is a brawler as are most Texas politicians.  Romney has never shown an ability to run a clean and dignified campaign.  But if the Frank Luntz focus group from Tuesday's debate is any indication, things have changed where negative campaigning is concerned.  Newt Gingrich, the adult in the room, was declared the winner of yet another debate not only for his command of policy issues, but for his refusal to take the bait and attack his fellow candidates.  The Luntz focus group found several members who had switched from one moderate or the other in favor of Gingrich.   While Cain maintains very high favorable ratings in these focus groups, it is the dignity Newt brings to the proceedings that is resonating.

This may be the strongest evidence to date that at least among Republicans, negative campaigning and character assassination of the kind that is the stock and trade of both Perry and Romney no longer works.  The old adage that when you're hit, you have to respond in kind and then hit back harder will buy you neither votes nor credibility as a principled fighter.  It will only buy the backlash it so strongly deserves.

When the guns are turned on Mr. Cain, it is likely Governor Romney will have limited himself to his narrow 23% base of liberals and moderates.  Conservatives will rally around their candidates, and in particular Mr. Cain.  The Georgian maintains both the highest enthusiasm rating of all candidates running this year, and the highest favorable ratings.  Even as people give serious thought to his frequent bouts of impolitic, his ratings remain high.  Attacking someone who is that strongly supported and with such high favorable ratings cannot work in the current political environment.   This is particularly true when one can almost smell Mitt Romney when he is in full gutter mode.  His huge volumes of cash together with all the support he'll gain from the media and the establishment opinion makers cannot help him unless he learns how to approach opposition with the dignity becoming of the office of President of the United States.

Perhaps Anderson Cooper will step in and explain the rules for him.  Until then, we can be grateful that his lack of a moral compass with regard to campaign etiquette is aimed at the other moderate in the race who has the money and organization to pull it off.  The establishment put Perry up as a possible anti-Romney who could appeal to both TEA Party and the Rockefeller elitists.  Now that he has been found to be a stammering lightweight with little more than a pot of cash and a bad attitude, they've begun to coalesce behind Mitt.

Can Cain withstand the withering attack?  We'll see.   But the bigger question is whether those in the conservative movement can withstand the next six months of the best processed sewage old money and undue influence can buy.